Italian pv market evolution Italian pv market evolution

Italian pv market evolution

1. Italian pv market evolution: total installations at a glance
Due to the approval of the decree of the Authority which certified the threshold of the cumulative annual incentives of 6.7 billion Euros, the incentives defined by the Ministerial Decree of 5 July 2012 had expired on July 6th 2013.
As of August 12th, the PV counter on the website of the Energy Services Operator has reached the value of approximate cost cumulative annual shortfall of 6 billion and 700 million euro.

The PV counter is composed as follows:
Total Operating Plants
Number of Plants: 526.463
Nominal Power (kW): 17.080.255
Yearly Cost (€): 6.605.824.828

Total Plant in the GSE Register*
Number of Plants: 4.779
Nominal Power (kW): 1.136.326
Yearly Cost (€): 94.183.695

The systems that to date have requested incentive are 531,242, for a total capacity of about 18,217 MW.

Of these 531,242 plants, 4,779, for a total capacity of 1,136 MW and an indicative annual cost of 94 million euro, are recorded in the registers in a good position but not yet in operation.

In order to have a ‘visible’ perspective of the past years growth of the Italian market of photovoltaic , we do represent here the Cumulate Power and Monthly Power graphs.

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Figure 1: Cumulate Power of the 5 Conto Energia through the years. (Source: GSE)

it also interesting to have a look at the quarterly installations:

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Figure 2: Monthly Installed Power through the various FIT. (Source: GSE)

2. PV Global Forecast

The main area analysts[1] agree in defining 33 to 35 GW of installed power as the overall results achievable from the PV market in 2013.

This result, sensibly higher than the one had in 2012, is due to the growth experienced during the second half of 2013, when the global solar photovoltaic demand is forecast to reach 20GW mainly thanks to the development experienced in China and Japan.

More than the 80% of the world’s PV demand in 2013 is meant to come from the top ten global markets.

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Figure 3: Breakdown of 2013 Solar PV Demand. (Source: Solarbuzz)

According to the Californian consultancy firm, the overall level of the installed power in Europe will reach in 2014 the same level of 2013.

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Figure 4: European Summary Quarterly Market Segmentation (Source: Solarbuzz)

The main PV markets in Europe, at least in the short mean term, are considered to be Germany, UK, Italy.

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, the global PV industry is entering into a “third growth phase” in which solar can be deployed without subsidies and can survive a backlash from utilities.

The DB report states that solar is competitive without subsidies in at least 10 major markets globally and has the potential to achieve competitiveness in 10 to 20 additional markets over the next 3 years.

This is possible because module prices have declined to around 65 cents per W. This price enables large-scale PV systems to be installed for $1.00 to $1.20 per W in most regions worldwide, “which translates to solar electricity prices (i.e. LCOE) of 10 to 20 cents per kWh[2]”.

3. Energy Market

According to the monthly data provided by Terna, although the application is much higher than the previous month (29.9 TWh against 25.7 TWh), there is a decrease when the data are compared to July 2012 (-3.3%, -3, 6% excluding the calendar effect and temperature).

This means that the demand for electricity, in the month of July, still shows a decreasing trend.

It is still considerably relevant the monthly contribution of renewable electrical production to the overall figure: 40.5% of the whole demand.

The share of generation from photovoltaics on the net production has been equal to 11.1% (9.87% of the overall demand).

In July, the electricity demand in Italy was covered for 88, 2% by national produced energy.

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[1] Sources: E&Y, Energy Strategy, Solarbuzz.

[2] This strongly depends, among the others, on irradiation and operative costs.